Musaab Abu Zaid, a server at T-Bones in Laconia, trains new hire Jillian Braley. (Photo by Adam Drapcho, Laconia Daily Sun)
Even in a typical year, tourism businesses in northern New England have to deal with forces both unpredictable and out of their control, such as the price of gasoline and whether the sun will shine on the weekends. Forecasting this summer is even more difficult, as there’s the yet-unknown scale of the trade war set off by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and concern over the effect of growing anti-U.S. sentiment on the Canadian side of the border.
One bright spot for business owners is staffing, which seems to have at least stabilized, if not returned to levels seen prior to the pandemic. However, according to one industry expert, the reason for that stabilization might itself be cause for worry.
“We’re seeing applications, we’re hiring people, we’re in a much better spot than we were even 12, 18 months ago,” said Mike Somers, president and CEO of the NH Lodging and Restaurant Association. “I think it’s unfortunately a function of the economy slowing down.” Inflation might have slowed but, he continued, “pricing hasn’t come down. I think what has happened is a lot of those part-time workers we lost during the pandemic, we’ve seen them come back. Their families need that extra income.”
Fortunately for those in need of extra income, the hospitality industry can provide just that, and often through short hours. Meanwhile, Somers said, those restaurants and other businesses have learned over the past few years how to scale operations to fit staffing capacity, such as by shortening their hours or reducing the number of guests they will seat at a given time.
“The supply side has improved a little, and the demand side has eased a little,” Somers said.
As for how many customers those businesses will serve, Somers said it’s hard to say.
“It’s been a very volatile start to the year,” Somers said. So far, he said there’s been a “dramatic drop” of Canadian visitors to the U.S., which he said is concerning because “that’s a significant piece of summer visitation.”
While tourism from Canada is a minority of overall visitation to New England, it’s significant enough that a measurable drop could make a difference over the course of the season. As Somers put it, “That isn’t going to destroy the season, but it will provide areas of softness,” and could portend a larger trend of reduced international tourism.
But if Americans also choose to stay closer to home with their vacations, New England could replace its foreign visitors with those from neighboring states. Weddings and other events are continuing to book well, he said.
Overall, it’s a mixed forecast with many unknown variables.
“There’s just a lot of hesitancy. I think everyone is gearing up for a full summer season, there is quietly a concern that bookings might not be where they used to be,” Somers said. “There are some bright spots, but there are some areas of concern. And tourism in New Hampshire always ends up being a weather report.”
Karmen Gifford, president of the Lakes Region Chamber of Commerce, was a bit sunnier in her outlook, though she held some of the same reservations.
“I’m seeing tourism on track, except for Canada. The Canadian tourists coming over the border is down and will be down; people are choosing not to visit this year,” Gifford said.
She said she advises members against fretting over the variables, instead to focus on what they can control, such as maintaining standards of service with the staffing levels they have.
“People are already working beyond capacity, that creates anxiety. We don’t need to create more anxiety with things that are beyond their control,” Gifford said. “It’s a different approach to business.”
Tom Boucher, owner and CEO of Great New Hampshire Restaurants that operates nine locations including T-Bones and Cactus Jack’s, said, “It’s really clear that Canadians are bothered by what’s happening at the administration level, and they’re showing it by not going to the United States.”
A significant and lasting decline in Canadian visitation would be bad news for local businesses.
“We’re not very bullish about what it looks like this summer because of that, because of the potential the tariffs are going to have and the uncertainty in the stock market,” Boucher said.
He noted money spent by Canadians ends up in the pockets of restaurant workers, and even in the state’s restaurant and lodging tax revenues.
“If lodging and restaurants don’t have a great summer, that doesn’t bode well for the state, either,” Boucher said.
This article is being shared by partners in the Granite State News Collaborative. For more information, visit collaborativenh.org.
