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Today’s housing starts data exceeded estimates; however, a closer examination of the report with the builder confidence reveals that the recent rise in mortgage rates, approaching 7.25%, has negatively affected builder sentiment.
Since late 2022, our analysis indicates that mortgage rates in the 6%-6.5% range are positive to grow sales, whereas rates at 7% and above — especially 7.50% or higher — significantly impact the builder data. So, let’s look at the report to see what is happening.
From Census: Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000. This is 15.8 percent (±14.4 percent) above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent (±11.3 percent)* below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000.
Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,483,000. This is 0.7 percent below the revised November rate of 1,493,000 and is 3.1 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,530,000.
When analyzing new home sales data and housing starts, it’s important to remember this rule of thumb. Whenever you see a significant increase or decrease on a month-to-month print, it typically gets revised back to align with the overall trend.
This is why it’s essential to monitor builders’ forward-looking outlooks closely. As shown below, housing activity related to permits remains minimal, with single-family permits — crucial to the market — growing slowly.
A significant change has occurred in the past month: the builder’s sales outlook has declined sharply. The index dropped from 66 to 60, representing a decrease of 6 basis points. Historically, such a decline has served as a reliable indicator of upcoming shifts in the market cycle. We’ve recently seen fluctuations in this data due to changing interest rates. With mortgage rates approaching 6%, builders were gaining confidence in selling homes. Now that rates have gone above 7%, the forward-looking confidence indicator has declined.
From the Builders survey: “The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell six points to 60 because of the elevated interest rate environment.”
I aim to keep things straightforward: the housing starts data for 2024 marked the lowest level in five years. The number of newly completed new homes for sale has risen to 120,000. The total number of completed units reported in the housing starts report has recently declined. In August 2024, there were 1,763,000 completed starts, but this number has since decreased to 1,544,000.
As confidence in the market declines, mortgage rates exceeding 7% pose challenges for builders. However, in recent years, mortgage rates between 6% and 6.5% have been more effective in stimulating activity in the housing market. On Thursday, Fed Chris President Waller tried to talk down mortgage rates to try to make financial conditions less restrictive in housing because of this chart.
The Federal Reserve cannot afford another sector to experience job losses like it did with manufacturing in 2024 while maintaining an unemployment rate target of 4.3% or lower. I discussed this on the HousingWire Daily podcast today.
While rates in the 6-6.5% range are not as low as the 3.25% to 5% rates we experienced over the past decade, that range should still facilitate the construction of more homes.
