Is the economy doing well or poorly? Data abounds on the national level to answer that question. This month, the NH Business Review launches an effort to provide insight into the New Hampshire economy.
On a quarterly basis, “The Pulse” will report key economic indicators such as employment, inflation and economic growth for the New Hampshire economy.
NH Business Review consulted with economists and business leaders to select what to report.
They pointed out that economic statistics, by their nature, look backward.
“We’re always basically looking at the past and trying to make some predictions from there,” said Gregory Randolph, a professor of economics at Southern New Hampshire University.
Economists and business leaders have their own way of judging the economy.
For statistics, Tim Wade, the New Hampshire president of M&T Bank, looks at in-migration levels, which means people are finding opportunity in the state and moving here.
Then he looks at more subtle changes, such as the cars on the road.
“I’m not seeing jalopies on the street,” he said. And it’s hard to get a seat at a restaurant — another indicator of a strong economy.
Michael Skelton, president and chief executive officer of the Business & Industry Association of New Hampshire, said the health of the economy depends on whom one asks. Wages might be up, but a worker won’t feel it if beset by high child care costs and rents, he said.
“It’s more of a vibes-based assessment of what they’re seeing and feeling,” Skelton said. “Political narratives can influence one’s feelings about the economy.”
To gauge that, the BIA partners with Saint Anselm College to survey business leaders in the spring.
“The Pulse” focuses on three key indicators: prices, output and labor. Most of the data is timely and released by agencies within a few weeks after the end of the month or quarter in question.
We are judging prices with the New England consumer price index for all urban consumers. Output is measured by the gross state product, the only measure with a three-month lag.
Both indicators are reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
For labor, we report the workforce and the raw number of people employed. That goes beyond the monthly unemployment rate and allows us to focus on the size of the workforce and unemployed people.
Another focus is the average paycheck of a factory worker.
“The Pulse” will also feature a wild card category. One of the six will change every quarter in an effort to capture data that gives additional insight.
This month, we concentrated on spending on hotels and restaurants in the state, which is based on the state Rooms and Meals Tax.
