The new state budget is banking on future New Hampshire real estate sales.
A key source of revenue for the state is the Real Estate Transfer Tax (RETT), imposed on both the buyer and seller at a rate of 75 cents per $100 of the selling price. For example, a $550,000 sale would generate $4,125 in taxes, shared by the parties in the transaction.
The current two-year state budget, which finishes up on June 30, raised about $380 million in revenue from the RETT.
The new two-year budget goes into effect on July 1, and it’s looking to rely heavily on future real estate sales, with the hope that real estate tax revenue will grow by $62 million in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, ending on June 30, 2027.
Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s version of that budget called for $445.1 million in RETT revenue. The House version of the budget was less optimistic than the governor, projecting $433.5 million from the transfer tax. The Senate version currently stands at $442 million in RETT revenue.
Final figures in the two-year, tax-and-spend plan will be reconciled in the weeks ahead.
There is reason for some optimism in those revenue expectations. Both the median price of a residential home and the total volume of sales have been on the upswing so far this year.
But there is also some pessimism as the state’s housing crisis continues to squeeze available supply and raise prices, and as residents express pessimism about their economic future.
In May, the median price of a single-family home was $540,000, equaling an all-time high set in June of 2024, according to data from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors (NHAR). The median price started the year in January at $502,500 and has climbed steadily since.
The dollar volume of closed sales in May was $620.6 million. It, too, has been mostly on the rise since January, when total volume was $401.1 million. That is the kind of growth the state budget for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 is banking on.
But there are some cautions in that forecast.
“The $540,000 May median price is yet another indication that homeownership continues to be out of reach for too many New Hampshire residents, and that the work of increasing inventory and expanding opportunities is just beginning,” said NHAR president Susan Cole.
“The NHAR Affordability Index also continues to tell this story, remaining below 60 for the fifth consecutive month in April, at 57, meaning the state’s median household income is just 57% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home,” added Cole, owner/broker of the Susan Cole Realty Group in Lebanon.
The NHAR noted itself, in a document on file among the 2026-2027 revenue forecasts, that there’s been a 60% drop of active housing inventory for sale from March 2019 (pre-pandemic) and March 2025.
“In general, the story remains the same: We’re in a housing crisis that stems from more than a decade of dwindling inventory, and the end result is a lack of housing affordability for many, particularly the working class that we need to make our New Hampshire economy thrive,” said Cole.
There are signs, according to Cole, that inventory is improving ever so slightly.
“Though we are still far removed from normal inventory levels — October 2016 was the last time we had as much as 5 months’ supply — we have seen year-over-year inventory increases in each of the last 16 months, including double-digit percent increases in each of the last 12 months,” she said. “And, anecdotally I have noticed fewer multiple-offer situations with days on market increasing slightly. Additionally, price reductions appear to be becoming more frequent as well.”
Still, affordability remains an issue.
“The National Association of Realtors recently released a study showing affordability based on income level. Among other things, it shows that in this market, families earning $100,000 can afford only 19% of the homes on the market. In a balanced market, that number would be nearly 52%,” she said.
“If there are positive signs, one is that the percent price increase seems to be decreasing over the last several months,” Cole added. “Whereas we have seen many double-digit percent monthly increases over the last five years, the last three have been more modest: 7.4 in February, 5.0 in March, 2.5 in April.”
A May 30 poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows only 6% of Granite Staters think it’s a good time to buy a home. The survey was done on behalf of the NH Business and Industry Association (BIA).
“Policymakers can help bolster the economy and strengthen consumer confidence by focusing on key challenges facing employers and consumers across the state, like workforce availability, housing supply and affordability, energy costs, and reducing consumer regulations,” said Michael Skelton, BIA president and CEO.
A separate UNH poll on May 29 shows housing remains the biggest issue in the state. Registering as the No. 1 concern among 36% of voters, housing topped other issues such as taxes (10%), education (8%) and the cost of living (5%).
The most recent report by the NH Department of Administrative Services on revenue collections shows April RETT revenue at $12.9 million, compared to $13.3 million that was projected for the month but $1.1 million above the same month last year.
As an indicator that fewer homes are being sold but at higher prices, the department says the number of transactions reported by the state’s 10 counties for April (March collections) were down 1.3% but that transaction values for the period were 6.6% above the same month last year.
Here are the median prices of single-family homes in each of the state’s counties as of April, according to NHAR data:
- Belknap $500,000
- Carroll $510,000
- Cheshire $365,000
- Coos $302,500
- Grafton $439,000
- Hillsborough $550,000
- Merrimack $537,500
- Rockingham $710,000
- Strafford $515,000
- Sullivan $360,000
- Entire state $540,000
Here are the median prices of residential condominiums/townhouses by county:
- Belknap $450,000
- Carroll $481,000
- Cheshire $273,000
- Coos $610,000 (based on one transaction)
- Grafton $315,000
- Hillsborough $386,000
- Merrimack $467,450
- Rockingham $561,376
- Strafford $343,300
- Sullivan $339,500
- Entire state $449,950
When it comes to residential property, Rockingham County continues to be an outlier from the rest of the state as the county with the most expensive single-family prices in the state.
That’s due in large part to the Seacoast area, where the Board of Realtors there reported that 30 of the 70 home transactions in May were for $1 million or more. The May monthly median sale price reached $877,500 for a single-family home in the region, the highest since October 2024 and up 1.4% from last year.
The Seacoast Board of Realtors takes its data from 13 sample communities: Exeter, Greenland, Hampton, Hampton Falls, New Castle, Newfields, Newington, North Hampton, Newmarket, Portsmouth, Rye, Seabrook and Stratham.
