As Federal Reserve policymakers meet this week amid a high likelihood they’ll keep benchmark interest rates unchanged, the recent downward movement in mortgage rates leveled off.
HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center showed that the average 30-year conforming loan rate was at 7.01% on Tuesday. That figure was unchanged from the same time last week. The 15-year conforming rate, which has been volatile of late, averaged 6.79% on Tuesday, up 13 basis points from a week ago and the same rate as two weeks ago.
HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami noted that Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed relatively little cooling in the labor market. The number of job openings nationally fell from 8.23 million in May to a preliminary estimate of 8.18 million in June. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences mortgage rates, moved up only slightly after the release of the JOLTS report.
The full BLS employment report for July is scheduled to be released Friday. Last month’s report showed that the U.S. added 206,000 positions, down from 272,000 in May. Higher interest rates appear to be cooling the economy as the unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 4.1% during the year ending in June 2024, while inflation dropped to 3% on an annualized, a steeper-than-expected decline.
Meanwhile, most analysts expect Fed officials to keep the benchmark rate at range of 5.25% to 5.5% on Wednesday. The CME Group‘s FedWatch tool places the odds of no changes at nearly 96%, although there is unanimous agreement on a rate cut in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his customary post-meeting press conference at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
“The Fed’s June Summary Economic Projections suggest only one rate cut in 2024, down from three projected in March,“ Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, said in a statement. “However, continued softening inflation data and a weaker labor market keep the possibility of an additional rate cut alive, with markets betting on three rate cuts this year. By the end of 2025, policymakers expect a policy rate of 4.1%, implying four additional quarter-point cuts.”
Mortgage rates have remained above the 7% threshold for most of this year. The impact on home sales has been acute, but home prices remain resilient.
On Tuesday, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller index slowed its yearly gain to 5.9% in May, down from 6.5% in February and March. Still, the index reached another all-time high for a third month in a row.
“The slowing of yearly gains continues to reflect a residual comparison with the strong 2023 spring season, while also illustrating the impact of slowing housing demand on cooling price growth,“ CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp said in a statement.
“The housing market experienced considerable cooling at the end of the spring home-buying season as mortgage rates pushed beyond the 7% benchmark — which seems to be a mental barrier for potential homebuyers in deciding to enter the home-buying process. June existing home sales activity, reflecting high April mortgage rates, slowed to the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis.“
