HousingWireHousingWire
The latest data through January 2025 shows that while agent movement in January rose from December’s lows — following a typical seasonal pattern — the rebound is notably weaker than in most prior years. The seasonally adjusted data continues to drift lower, indicating that the underlying pace of brokerage switching remains subdued. Meanwhile, the count of active agents continues a modest decline but has not yet reached levels seen back in 2018.
Key observations from January:
• Modest monthly uptick, but below typical January: The unadjusted monthly AMI score rose to 90.3, reflecting a normal post-holiday lift in agent movement. However, that bounce is underwhelming by historical standards.
• Seasonally adjusted metric declines: The seasonally adjusted figure edged down to 89.2, continuing the softer trend noted in December’s release and emphasizing that the real underlying movement remains slower than usual for this time of year.
• 12 month moving average eases further: The trailing 12-month measure dipped to 98.6, extending the downward drift we highlighted last month.
• Active agent count slips again: The pool of agents closing at least one transaction in the past year fell to 790,111, marking another month of decline — though still well above the more constrained numbers of 2018.
“January often brings a bump in recruiting momentum as agents re-evaluate their broker relationships,” said Relitix Founder, Rob Keefe. “This year, that uptick appears muted. Our seasonally adjusted readings continue to slip, suggesting that many agents are staying put and that brokerages remain cautious with their hiring. While it’s not as low as the environment we saw in 2018, we expect recruiters and brokerage leaders to keep refining their retention strategies until the market signals a stronger turnaround.”
These January findings build on the themes from our December 2024 release, which underscored a persistent downward trend in agent mobility and foreshadowed a tempered start to 2025. Although a modest January increase in raw numbers is normal — and did materialize — the relative weakness of this year’s uptick indicates the caution we have observed for several months remains in place.
What this means for brokers and recruiters:
• Planning for a soft first quarter: Even with a small seasonal bounce, overall agent movement remains subdued. Leaders may want to plan for slower-than-typical early-year recruiting.
• Retooling recruitment strategies: As fewer agents switch brokerages, an enhanced value proposition—such as stronger technology tools, marketing support, or more robust agent development—could tip the scales in attracting top performers.
• Monitoring active agent levels: Although active agent counts continue to trend down, they have not (yet) returned to 2018’s lower levels. Keeping tabs on whether the agent pool stabilizes or contracts further is critical for setting realistic recruiting goals.
Rob Keefe is the president of Relitix.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.
