Business conditions turned positive in New Hampshire during the first three months of 2025, a turnaround from six months of negative ratings, according to an index compiled by Citizens Financial Group.
The New Hampshire index was 54.7 for the January-March quarter of 2025, according to Citizens. Likewise, the country as a whole had a positive reading of 50.9. Anything reading above 50 shows positive business conditions, according to Citizens.
The New Hampshire index had held below 50 for the final two quarters of 2024.
“Obviously, coming into the year, we’re definitely feeling upbeat and optimistic. That is continuing,” said Marc Lubelczyk, New Hampshire and Vermont president at Citizens.
Citizens ranks second in New Hampshire when it comes to deposits, with a market share of about 18%, according to the FDIC.
The Citizens Business Conditions Index reflects, in part, the conditions reported in early May by NH Business Review’s The Pulse. The Pulse found the New Hampshire economy healthy during the first three months of 2025.
The Pulse recorded a strong economy in the second half of 2024, while the Citizens Index reported negative business conditions.
The latest readings by both the Citizens Index and The Pulse focus on conditions on the eve of President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement, which kicked off a punishing round of tariffs.
The President later suspended the tariffs for 90 days and started negotiations with the country’s trading partners. Markets went on a roller coaster ride through much of April as investors weighed the future of global markets and trade.
Lubelczyk said Citizens finds some of the biggest strength for the state in advanced manufacturing.
“They are continuing to be very busy,” he said. Some projects are focused on expansions while others involve internal efficiencies.
“There’s an insatiable demand for U.S. products right now,” said Tony Fernandez, president and CEO of the New Hampshire Manufacturing Extension Partnership, a U.S. Commerce Department-funded operation that seeks to facilitate manufacturing.
For example, in Keene six manufacturing companies are expanding and plan to have 200 job openings in the near future, he said.
Fernandez said tariffs aren’t as much a reason for the resurgence in U.S. manufacturing as the supply chain issues that developed in conjunction with the COVID pandemic.
“The pandemic woke a lot of people up,” he said.
He said tariffs will be a double-edged sword for manufacturing, making it harder for New Hampshire companies to import components but in the long run bringing more manufacturing to the United States.
Lubelczyk said several factors accounted for the negative business conditions of the final two quarters of 2024.
“The election, inflation and interest rates were certainly weighing across our commercial platform,” he said.
Interest rates have subsided over that time. On Sept. 30, 2024, the middle of the two final quarters of 2024, the Fed’s overnight lending rate was 5.16%. By Dec. 31, the last day of the final quarter of 2024, it had fallen to 4.53%.
It has dropped even further, down to 4.33% by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Citizens uses its global markets team to compile its Index. The bank relies on public information such as jobless claims and the Institute of Supply Management indices, and proprietary information such as activity of its commercial banking clients and new business applications.
The Index is not scalable, so a larger number does not reflect stronger or weaker business conditions.
As for the immediate future, Lubelczyk said he detects uncertainty due to national policy.
“Generally speaking, customers are taking a wait-and-see approach,” he said. “At a high level, there’s cautious optimism.”
The Citizens Index for Massachusetts, Vermont and Connecticut was above 50 for the first quarter of 2025. Rhode Island was below 50. Citizens does not compile an Index for Maine.
