The New Hampshire economy appeared to be slowing but still growing in the months leading up to President Trump’s Liberation Day trade announcements, according to economic data compiled by NH Business Review.
Data shows an increase in the workforce, easing inflation and flat spending on key discretionary items. The economic indicators comprise “The Pulse,” a new feature that will track and report economic data for New Hampshire with both quarterly data and monthly reports.
NH Business Review consulted with economists and business leaders before compiling the data.
“The state economy is coming off a relatively robust 2024 into a new year,” said Phil Sletten, research director for the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute.
Some indicators — labor force growth, paychecks and gross state product — show an economy that is holding up well, he said. Other data — building permits and spending on restaurants and hotels — suggest slower growth.
“None of the data suggests a stalling economy,” Sletten said.
Days after the first quarter of 2025 closed, Trump announced a crippling level of tariffs for nearly all U.S. trading partners, but then instituted a 90-day pause for negotiations.
Throughout April, daily announcements prompted wide swings in financial markets. As the month closed, the Commerce Department said the U.S. economy declined 0.3% in the first quarter — short of the 0.4% growth that economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected, the newspaper reported April 30.
Based on the data reviewed by NH Business Review, workforce gains have looked solid.
The average number of people in the workforce between January and March, whether working or unemployed, rose by 11,400 compared to the first quarter in 2024, according to unadjusted tallies.
That’s a good sign, because New Hampshire employers have consistently complained about the challenges of finding workers.
“We are seeing the size of the labor force getting back to pre-pandemic levels,” Sletten said. Headwinds remain for the labor force, however: an aging population, child care shortages and the high cost of housing, he said.
The number of unemployed workers grew by about 1,500 over the same period. That works out to an unemployment rate of 3.1% for March, which was slightly higher than February.
Things were good for workers.
The average paycheck of production workers in the manufacturing industry, a category closely tracked by the state Department of Employment Security, was $1,070, just $12 short of a two-year high.
Overall, the New Hampshire economy grew an inflation-adjusted 2.8% in the final, October-to-December quarter of 2024, the latest available measurement from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The highest of the six New England states, the New Hampshire growth rate was slightly less than the final quarter of 2023 and significantly lower than the 4.5% growth rate that the state’s economy experienced during the summer of 2024.
Growth leaders include the fields of construction; professional, scientific and technical services; health care and social assistance; real estate, including renting and leasing; and finance and insurance.
Meanwhile, prices climbed.
The average New England annual inflation rate for the past three months was 3.8%, the highest of the previous five quarters. But that average belies the number for the month of March, which came in at an annual rate of 3.2%.
That was significantly lower than the first two months of the quarter and more in line with the final two quarters of 2024.
Two other indicators also reflect a slowing economy.
Housing permits were substantially off from a year ago, but close to those from 2023. Housing is important for two reasons: the construction and sale of homes generate economic activity, and more homes could address the rapid increases in rent and home prices, which experts have said is a drag on the state’s economy.
Finally, people appear to be splurging less. Restaurant, hotel and rental car sales — discretionary items that consumers can avoid easily — rose less than 1% compared to the winter quarter of 2024.
