Brian Gottlob started off his economic forecast for the Greater Manchester Chamber by saying upfront that he’s not a political person and that his talk would be “strictly from an economic perspective.”
“It’s very difficult to talk about some of the things affecting the economy without having it appear as though it’s from a political or ideological approach,” said Gottlob, director of the New Hampshire Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau during his Thursday webinar talk.
Brian Gottlob
The economist’s overall assessment:
- New Hampshire is faring better than the nation and its neighbors, with job and economic growth holding steady.
- Gottlob is not predicting a recession in 2025, though he adjusted his growth projections downward. New Hampshire will grow 0.8% this year, trailing the nation’s 1.6 gross domestic product 1.6% rate.
- The state would be attracting even more workers if it could meet the demand for housing.
With the Trump administration’s daily menu of executive orders — from tariffs to mass layoffs of government workers — the level of uncertainty rippling through the economy has make it extra challenging for anyone trying to forecast where we’re heading.
While presenting an overall positive outlook for Manchester and New Hampshire, Gottlob acknowledged the threats we are facing from federal policy initiatives.
“I thought New Hampshire was starting 2025 with some real solid economic momentum in terms of job growth. We are starting to see some cracks in how businesses view their circumstances,” Gottlob said.
On the positive side, job losses remain low, particularly in New Hampshire. The Queen City also was “standout performer” in terms of entrepreneurial activity, as measured by the formation of new businesses, particularly those that expect to hire workers.
The Manchester area’s biggest area of job growth is high-paying industries such as professional, scientific services and health care. The No. 1 high-demand job in the state is nursing, based on job placement ads. “Registered nurses is the top occupation in demand in almost every region of the state,” he said.
While the labor market is cooling, demand for high-paying jobs continues to be strong, he said.
“Overall, the demand for labor, not just in Manchester but in New Hampshire, is easing. And nationally companies are becoming a little bit more cautious,” Gotttlob said. “But what I see is that those higher skill occupations that demand higher levels of education and computers and health care occupations are in strong demand.”
The size of the state’s workforce is still 1% smaller than it was prior to the pandemic, Gottlob noted. By contrast, the nation has regained its pre-pandemic workforce plus 3%.
“Some of that in the U.S. overall has to do with in-migration immigration over the last couple of years, which really boosted the labor force. That has occurred less so in New Hampshire,” he said. “If you look at the most recent couple of years, almost all of the growth in labor force has come from international migration into the country.”
Most of the in-migration into New Hampshire has come from other states, which picked up during the pandemic and for a few years afterward as people from more densely populated regions of the Northeast moved to northern, but it has since slowed.
“I don’t believe (it slowed) because we weren’t as attractive; it slowed because we just didn’t have the housing to accommodate individuals,” Gottlob said. “This is why housing to me is such an important issue in the state. It really is the key to our addressing our demographic issues.”
He noted that Maine has permitted more housing units over the 15 years than New Hampshire, but the state is on track this year to grant the most housing permits since 2007.
Gottlob noted the rise in housing units in Manchester, particularly downtown, where new apartment buildings have opened or are under development.
“Having people live in your downtown area, particularly skilled, well-educated, people, people who are working in the in the Millyard … Those individuals will really help create an even more vibrant city,” he said.
While Gottlob did his best to sidestep politics, he couldn’t help but mention the impact of tariffs on the economy, especially with our neighbor, Canada, which, at $1.8 billion, tops the list of countries from which the state imports $9.6 billion worth of goods each year.
New Hampshire exports $7.6 billion of product to Canada every year, with aerospace products generating by far the highest percentage, at 70 percent, followed by pharmaceuticals and communication equipment.
Gottlob noted that 80% of international visits to New Hampshire originate in Canada. Border crossings of people returning to Canada from the U.S. were down 23% in January and February compared to year ago.
“That has some negative impacts on hospitality industry in New Hampshire. And we’re hearing about that,” he said. “We’ve really roused the patriotism of Canadians.
